March 2019 Insider’s Report: People Moving In And Out Of State

We have a little Insider's update for you, Insider's Report. This is something that we're not gonna go too deeply into, like I said, in these Insider's Reports we'll try to keep them a little quicker now, trying to stray away from the 45-60 minute videos we're doing a year or two ago. I want to give you an update as to kind of nationally what's going on. This is the macro 30,000-foot view of what's going on here.

Moves by state

It really is an interesting thing. Our team, our real estate team right now is based in Metro Detroit. So it's in Michigan and you'll see that state on this graph somewhere, on this chart here somewhere. But, I just want to go through this quickly. This basically is the moves-by-state, the percentage of moves they're in and out of a state. There's any given number of moves, but the percentage that people are moving in or out of a state, and this is what this chart tells basically. This is from I believe it was from RIS Media. So it is a real estate publication that the realtors get. Just want to walk through this quickly. The number of moves in state Vermont crushed everybody, 72% of their moves are in-state. So moving just somewhere else in the state. You can see here kind of going through the list: Oregon - 62, Idaho - 62, Nevada - 61, Arizona - 60, South Carolina - 60, Washington - 59, North Carolina - 57, South Dakota - 57, DC - 56. So a lot of instate movement here in these places.

We didn't see some east coast, obviously. We see a lot of west coasts, stuff like that obviously and a little bit of a lean there. Then you come over to the people moving out of state. And the numbers there are pretty scary in some areas.

Michigan at 55%

Michigan, the state that we are in, does make the list. It's number 10 at 55%. So 55% of the moves are out of the state. So again, what that means is any of these days, I'll go through these and here, and for those of you in the podcast is kind of why I walked through all these so you can hear them all. New Jersey 67%, Illinois - 66, Connecticut - 62, New York State - 61, Kansas - 59, Ohio - 57, Massachusetts - 56, Iowa - 55, Montana - 55, and Michigan - 55. I believe I got all of those initials correct from the state. So correct me if I'm wrong though, but I'm usually pretty, pretty sound the fact.

What it means to you

What that means though, if you're in this area, that's tough. It's tough on sellers because you're dealing with a little bit fewer buyers with people leaving the state and not necessarily buying a new home. So if you're a seller, you've got to kind of weigh that. It has been a seller's market really last year or two couple of years, but you do have to kind of weigh what's going on and the macro overlay of what's going on in the economy.

I want to touch on another article I have here quickly in a second, but this is telling when you're in these states, you gotta be very careful. New Jersey, that's almost two-thirds of the people are moving out of the state. The people are moving, I think that's credible. I mean, that's scary stuff. That will depress home prices as time goes on because people aren't there to take that inventory. So it's a very interesting time. Just know where you're at. Obviously, for those of us here in Michigan, it's almost 50-50. It's close, but still as good. Five percent of people are moving out of state and then moving down south, probably retiring in Arizona, Florida, wherever it may be, in North Carolina.

We've had a number of sellers that we're dealing with that are moving and doing things like that. They're moving out of state. Not only is it affecting the job market too, right? It can affect all different job markets. It can affect realtors obviously at the very base level because if you're only selling a house and you're not helping someone buy a new house that can affect teams and brokerages and all those different things too. So you gotta be very diligent and know exactly what's going on in your neighborhood. And again, we always provide this info for you guys that way you can make the best decisions for you and your family and know what's going on. We want educated consumers. I'm a consumer as well, right? My team is full of consumers, we're all consumers. We're all buying and selling houses too, investing in homes or what have you. So you have to know what's going on in order to make sound decisions. So remember the trend is your friend, right?

The very last thing here I just wanna touch on quick is just an article from Zero Hedge, which is unbelievable and definitely checks out Zerohedge if you care anything about numbers or anything like that at all. There's a reason why I keep these a little bit shorter nowadays, these Insider updates just because we're going to start telling more stories, doing interviews, doing all kinds of stuff like that, being a little bit more entertainment, edutainment as you will. Because I'm a pretty fact-based guy and just, I don't need the stories since they're that kind of blow through stories just to get the facts, but that's not how most people are. So we're gonna be doing more edutainment interviews of business owners and all kinds of stuff as we go forward here. We've done some of the past, actually. They just kind of tucked away. So we're going to get to more of that in the future. We're going to tamp down the Insider's Reports a little bit and stuff like that because I know not everyone is geeking out on numbers and housing availability and things like that, but again, I do these things so you guys know what's going on in the market.

Not much inventory

This headline, 'US housing market in a free fall as new buyers can't afford homes' just speaks on basically buyers having a tough time. They're having a tough time saving for homes, they're having a tough time renting and they're not being able to save up money that rents are going up. So they weren't able to able to save as much money as they thought. Interest rates have gone up a little bit. Historically, they're not that bad. They're still only around four and a half percent as of this recording. However, we have home sales that were up in days, I guess, depending on what perspective you have. It took more time basically from this time a year ago. It took 42 days to sell home nationally a year ago, and it's up to about 46 to 49 depending on the market it says. A week difference. It's pretty amazing what's going on in the market. There's just a lot of inventory. The median home price growth was the slowest since February 2012. So not only that, the pricing, because of that, again, it's supply and demand, right? So supply is going up and there's not as much demand. So the price starts coming down.

I'm going to wrap up there, guys. I don't want to get it long into numbers and being all wonky on these things, but just know where you're at depending on what state you're in. Most of you are watching and listening here in Michigan. So just know there are more sellers out there. What does that mean to you? That more sellers out there than there are buyers for the most part. Right.

There are more sellers than there are buyers. However, we can see the numbers, we're doing the market updates and we can see that there is still an inventory shortage, but a lot of those sellers aren't moving out of state. And that's probably why we've seen a little bit of balance here actually over the last couple months of the market balancing a little bit because we do have some people moving out of state and there are some more buyers and sellers. So it's kind of evening itself out a little bit. It's interesting, something to keep an eye on.

Pay attention to these things because there's gonna come a time when the market changes big time. And I don't want to be the person that says, "I told you so." I don't want to be the person that's doing all that, but I'm going to do it. So I just, I get off on that a little bit. So it's going to happen. And then there are all the people out there that I've told all over the years. Like, 'Oh, of course, it's going to happen, Brandon. You're given enough time and that will happen." And Yeah. You know what? Of course, like life goes in cycles. Like I'm a cycles-guy and I can't predict time. No one can predict the time. I can tell you these things will happen, but I don't know when they're going to happen. No one can tell you when they're going to happen. I mean, Warren Buffet even talks about that. He can't tell you when it's gonna happen. He just knows "Hey, I need to position myself properly and be ready for this next event to come." I can tell you that we're not going to go into some 5, 10 15 years, an unbelievable, amazing period of growth. I can tell you that. I mean that's just blatantly obvious.

"It's knowing how to predict what's coming and not necessarily when, but what is coming and then preparing yourself, positioning yourself properly."

So I appreciate you guys more than anything. Your time, your energy, paying attention to us and all the content we were up putting out here for the last three, four years. I'm excited about the things that come for you guys, the edutainment that's coming. I'm really excited for that and some of the different perspectives and different, even like a little mini-series we're gonna be doing over time the next couple of years, which can be really fun and I can't wait to show you guys all of that and I'll get your feedback on that. So I appreciate your time and energy, it's the most important thing we have. We have to talk to you guys very soon.

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